A Risk Management Guide for Canadian Wheat Producers

Project Objective
The objective of this project is to develop a risk management guide which will enable wheat producers in Canada to evaluate the risk and probability of success associated with the use of inputs or other management practices throughout the growing season. The purpose of the guide will be to assist farmers in evaluating the potential net return associated with major production management decisions. Specifically, the Applicant will:

1. Develop a set of risk management charts and associated documentation (hereafter referred to as "the guide"), that can be used by wheat producers to evaluate the risk and probability of success associated with major production management decisions throughout the growing season.
2. Conduct an extensive review of the pertinent literature in order to design the necessary components of each part of the guide, and to highlight areas requiring further research.
3. Conduct a field study to develop methods for establishing yield targets for major Canadian wheat varieties under Canadian conditions, and for updating these yield targets as the season progresses.
4. Determine the probabilities associated with achieving a positive net return from the use of inputs or other management practices given the latest yield target for the crop, expected market prices for the crop, and the cost of inputs.
5. Field test and refine the risk management guide with the assistance of commercial farm operators.
6. Produce a prototype professional quality guide, and employ the services of a professional agronomist to promote the use and benefits of the guide throughout the farm, and private and public extension communities across Canada.

The proposed guide will provide for initial practical yield targets based on environmental and economic factors, and provide farmers with the necessary information to update yield predictions at critical decision making stages of crop growth. The guide will provide benchmarks and threshold levels for farmers to assess the risk or likelihood of achieving net returns from each cropping input. The net effect of the guide will be to increase the probability of the farmer achieving the maximum economic yield.

The long term target for the guide will be to have all farmers in Canada who are concerned about lowering the per unit cost of production using the guide in the management of their farms.

The work to be conducted during the 1988-89 season will include:
1. Module 1 Target yield and fertilization – guide design
2. Module 1 Field research – Studies 1, 2 and 3
3. Module 2 Crop establishment - guide design
4. Module 2 Field research - Study 4
5. Module 3 Weed control - guide design
6. Annual review
7. Preparation and distribution of preliminary risk management guide.