Assessment of Agronomic and Economic Benefits of Fertilizer Use in Maize Production Systems under Variable Farm Size, Climate and Soil Fertility Conditions in Eastern India

Background/Justification

Eastern India is one of the most populous and intensively cultivated regions in the world. Farming in Eastern India is characterized by small landholders. Typically low resource availability to the farmers and low profitability from cereal farming necessitates that inputs, including fertilizer, is used in the most efficient manner to maintain farm profitability in the region. Recent increase in fertilizer prices has raised doubts about the profitability of fertilizer application in cereals. However, the actual economic impact of changing fertilizer costs has not been evaluated using a systematic ex-ante analysis of the potential agronomic and economic benefits. IPNI and it’s partners have recently collected agronomic data from on-farm omission plot studies that is spatially well distributed and covers a wide range of maize growing environments (Majumdar et al., 2012). These on-farm nutrient response studies showed high variability in maize yield response to fertilizer N, P and K across the study region. These data were used to estimate economic response to fertilizer application and to develop the Nutrient Expert (NE) for Maize for South Asia, a decision support tool to implement site specific nutrient management in farmers’ fields. NE successfully provided recommendations for various categories (irrigated, favourable and unfavourable rainfed) of maize farmer to increase yields and profits by suggesting a meaningful yield goal for a specific location and providing a nutrient management strategy to attain the yield goal. However, the tool also enables researchers to conduct ex-ante analysis of nutrient management options, evaluating the economic responses across a range of yield increases based on the resource of the farmer. This project will build on existing research data, simulation of nutrient responses in new target regions and our experience with using NE to conduct ex ante analysis across farm typologies to improve return on investment for maize farmers in Eastern India.

Project purpose
a) State the project purpose simply and directly.
The project will synthesize information on farmer typologies, based on access and use of nutrient inputs and apply the NE decision support tool to conduct analysis to give insights into the agronomic and economic impact of nutrient management scenarios for various categories of farmers in Eastern India. The analysis will include i. Conventional agricultural system; ii. Conservation agriculture system, and iii. Rice-Maize and Maize-Wheat systems. The project will provide options for maize production intensification strategies for various farmer typologies based on appropriate target yields and access to irrigation through nutrient management strategies (types and rates of nutrients). Variability in growing environments, commodity prices in the regions, current and projected fertilizer costs will also be taken into account and nutrient management strategies will be developed for producing higher economic return from fertilizer investments and balanced nutrient use to reduce the environmental footprint of fertilizer application. The project will build capacity of researchers to use NE to conduct ex-ante analysis of nutrient management options. Outputs from the project will be packaged into scientific and extension guidelines for refining recommendations for farm typologies, soil fertility conditions and differing growing seasons (winter, spring and rainy season) of maize.

b) Describe how the project contributes to a particular MAIZE Strategic Initiative and the outputs listed in that particular MAIZE Strategic Initiative

The project will make a contribution the following Maize Strategic Initiatives 1-3.
· By developing and applying NE decision support system tool for systematic ex-ante analysis of fertilizer investment options for various categories of farmers the project will contribute to the outcome of ‘More powerful ex‐ante analysis of future outcomes, market prices, supply and demand projections’ under Strategic Initiative 1.
· Contribution to the outcomes of Strategic Initiative 2: Sustainable intensification and income opportunities for the poor, will be achieved by the development of viable options for maize production intensification for maize based cropping systems in Eastern India.
· Strategic Initiative 3: Smallholder precision agriculture will be addressed by providing extension and research guidelines for best management options for reducing the gap between attainable and current yields using nutrient management options relevant to variable biophysical and social-economic conditions. The project will also train NARSs and NAESs partners in the application of NE to develop site-specific nutrient management recommendations suitable for all farm typologies in a region.

Final project output (= Deliverables)
a) What outputs will the project deliver?

· Synthesis report of farmer typologies important to nutrient management recommendations available on the IPNI website.
· Nutrient Expert (NE) for Hybrid Maize in South Asia, validated under on-farm situations across growing environments, available for researchers and extension systems to develop site-specific nutrient recommendations for new sites.
· Regional nutrient recommendation bulletins for areas with similar growing conditions of maize and training material on use of NE to aid in development of suitable nutrient recommendations.
· Scientific publication of ex-ante scenario results in an international peer reviewed journal.
· Research and extension guidelines for fine tuning nutrient recommendations to farm typologies developed and distributed and available on the IPNI and CIMMYT website.

b) Who will be the immediate user of these outputs, how many and where? (“20 small seed companies from South Asia“)

· 50 researchers from Universities, State Department of Agriculture and International Agricultural Organizations
· 1000 extension agents, each working with at least 20 farmers, from State Agriculture Departments and Fertilizer Industry in Eastern India
· 50 private sector agencies including agro dealers and retailers

Research approach and proposed research and development activities in relation to outputs

· In partnership with collaborators, the project will synthesize information from IPNI research projects and research information from other sources to develop household typologies that will be used to provide a basis for targeting site-specific nutrient recommendations. The synthesis will generate farm typologies (poor, average, above average yields/income) based on established criteria that include farm size, livestock ownership, off-farm income and availability of labour. Soil fertility variability and access to irrigation water associated with the farm typologies will be developed taking into account management history and soil types.
· Based on the farm and soil variabily, the NE decision support tool will be used to assess the agronomic and economic impact of nutrient management options for the different farm typologies. The ex-ante analysis for various household typologies will assess (a) potential response of cereals to N, P and K nutrient application for different soil types (b) economic returns on application of N, P and K, and (c) profitability of N, P, K application with changing nutrient and maize price scenarios.
NE is a robust computer-based decision support tool that enables strategic formulation of nutrient management guidelines for maize and other crops. NE integrates agronomic information to provide options for optimizing maize yields and profits by suggesting a meaningful yield goal for specific locations and by providing the best nutrient management strategy required to attain the yield goal. Nutrient Expert for Maize allows determination of a range of yield goals taking into account the potential yield for the specific area, the attainable yield with optimal nutrient management as well as the farmers’ objectives (food security or income). NE is used in a participatory manner, and requires information that can be easily provided by a local expert in suggesting recommendations on crop and fertilizer management that are tailored to specific climate and soil conditions and locally available fertilizer and organic resources. The tool also presents a profit analysis comparing costs and benefits between the farmer’s current practice and the recommended alternative improved practice. In addition, Nutrient Expert for Maize is designed in a way that it can be used as a learning tool, providing extension staff with information of how to determine flexible nutrient application rates that are suitable for the variable soil fertility conditions within smallholder systems, fertilizer composition, quick helps, instant summary tables and graphs, allowing a great amount of flexibility in use of the tool. This provides added value in moving from what are now blanket recommendations to developing nutrient management recommendations that match the goals of the farmer and conditions in specific sites.

· A training workshop will be held for researchers, extension systems and representatives from the fertilizer industry to build capacity in application of NE to develop maize production intensification strategies for resource poor farmers of Eastern India.
· Results from the scenario analysis will be published in an international scientific journal to disseminate project outputs to the scientific community.
· Research and extension guidelines for developing farm typologies and fine-tuning nutrient management practices for various categories of farms will be developed for dissemination of project results.

Milestones
a) During project execution, what milestones will indicate that the project is on track towards delivering of the final project output(s)?

Year 1
Milestone	Delivery when?
Synthesis and documentation of farmer typologies in Eastern India	Month 3
NE decision support tool validated for conventional and conservation agricultural systems used to analyse nutrient management scenarios	Month 6
Training material on farm typology analysis and use of NE developed.	Month 6
Training workshops for research and extension systems in Eastern Indian States	Month 8
Scientific publication completed and submitted	Month 11
Research and extension guidelines produced.	Month 12

Target beneficiaries
a) Who are the ultimate beneficiaries of the project outputs?

· Small holder farmers of Eastern India

b) Explain how the users will use the project outputs to generate benefits for the targeted group of beneficiaries.

· The primary users of project outputs will be researchers and extension systems in projects that are operating in target areas including, CIMMYT conservation agriculture projects, the All India Coordinated Research Project on Maize of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), IPNI coordinated maize projects in Eastern India, State Departments of Agriculture of Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha, and the State Agricultural Universities of the Eastern Indian States. The researchers will be able to use the NE decision support tool and guidelines produced by the project to improve targeting of fertilizer recommendation.
· The researchers and extension systems, trained in the use of NE, will be able to more effectively recommend nutrient management practices to support farmers using NE and guidelines produced by the project.
· The project will work closely with initiatives disseminating knowledge on innovations for improving crop productivity, including CSISA and IFAD funded Hill Maize Project, for wider dissemination of project outputs.

c) What international public goods are generated by the project and how do they become available to the international public?

· NE decision support tool will be made available to the international scientific community for use and would be made accessible through the IPNI website.
· Guidelines for developing site-specific nutrient management recommendations using NE will be available from the IPNI website and will be integrated with partner and stakeholder agency websites.

Target geographies
a) Describe the geographic target area for the proposed project.

Eastern India with:
· High population density
· Highly fragmented land holdings
· Variable resource availability to farmer
· High potential for maize productions
· Variable growing environment with a range of rainfall and temperature regimes, soil types and cropping systems

b) Explain the criteria used to select the target area.

· High potential for reducing the yield gap
· High potential impact population
· Availability of relevant information required for the project
· On-going research activities for leveraging and dissemination project outputs.
· Linkage to CYMMIT through joint work on developing nutrient management strategies for CA systems
· Government support to grow low water requiring crop like maize in place of winter rice as a arsenic pollution mitigation strategy

Targeted impact
a) What indicators may be used to demonstrate impact among target beneficiaries? (eg “on-farm yield”)

· Potential agronomic and economic impact of nutrient management strategies demonstrated for various farm typologies.
· Knowledge products used by extension systems
· Researchers trained in use of NE.
· Private and public extension agents trained.

b) With how many beneficiaries do you think impact may be achieved? (eg 500,000)

· Government Research and Extension Systems of four Eastern Indian States and two fertilizer industry extension system impacting 20,000 farmers.

c) Can you quantify the extent of benefit for a typical beneficiary in terms of productivity, income, food security, environmental benefit? (eg. “100 kg/ha productivity increase”)

· At least 500-1,000 kg/ha increase in maize productivity in farmers’ fields.
· 10% increase in nutrient use efficiencies for N, P and K
· 100-150 USD/ha increase in farmer income

Risks and assumptions associated with the project (Max. 200 words)

· Unusual natural disasters like prolonged drought or flooding affecting implementation by extension partners.
· Collaborating NARES and international research partners will participate fully and will be willing to share data.
· Initiatives doing related research and development activities (including CSISA, Fertilizer industry and State Agriculture Departments) will actively collaborate and disseminate project outputs.

13. References
Kaushik Majumdar, M. L. Jat, Mirasol Pampolino, Anil Kumar, Vishal Shahi, Naveen Gupta, Vinay Singh, T. Satyanarayana, B. S. Dwivedi, V. K. Singh, Dalip Kumar, B. R. Kamboj, H. S. Sidhu, M. C. Meena and Adrian Johnston (2012). Economics of Potassium Fertilizer Application in Rice, Wheat and Maize grown in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Indian J. Fert., Vol. 8 (5), pp.44-53.